Oil prices drifted lower on Monday. Abundant global supply eased fears about disruptions after the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Brent crude futures fell 21 cents (0.4%) to $60.54 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 28 cents (0.5%) to $57.04 a barrel.
Markets showed early volatility in Asian trading. Prices opened lower, then briefly rose, but soon turned negative again. Investors carefully weighed the implications of the weekend raid. Yet Venezuela’s current output is too small to move global oil prices significantly.
President Donald Trump said the U.S. would take temporary control of Venezuela’s oil sector. He also confirmed the full embargo on Venezuelan crude remains active. Maduro was detained in New York. His government called the move a “kidnapping.” Still, top officials in Caracas pledged unity and kept operations running.
Importantly, the U.S. operation did not damage Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed over the weekend to hold production steady. Therefore, global supply stays ample. “We see ambiguous but modest risks to oil prices in the short run,” Goldman Sachs analysts said. They kept their 2026 forecasts unchanged.
A full regime change, however, could shift the outlook. J.P. Morgan noted such a shift “would immediately represent one of the largest upside risks to global oil supply for 2026–2027.” Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven reserves. Even partial sanctions relief could unlock hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, according to Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets.
Yet uncertainty remains high. Trump warned of a second military strike if Maduro’s allies refuse to cooperate. He also threatened action in Colombia and Mexico over drug trafficking. Additionally, he hinted at intervention in Iran amid protests there. These threats raise broader geopolitical risks—though markets have not panicked.
As Croft cautioned, “All bets are off in a chaotic change of power scenario like what occurred in Libya or Iraq.” For now, traders focus on fundamentals. With high inventories and modest demand growth, oil prices stay grounded—despite the political storm in Caracas.
