On October 8, 2025, Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister, Gedion Timothewos, publicly accused Eritrea of actively preparing to wage war against Ethiopia. He sent a formal letter to the United Nations Secretary-General, warning of a growing threat to regional peace. The accusation escalates tensions between these neighboring countries and raises concerns about potential instability in the Horn of Africa.
Background of Tensions
The Horn of Africa has always been a hotspot of political and military complexity. Ethiopia and Eritrea share a long, tumultuous history marked by conflict, mistrust, and fragile peace agreements. From 1998 to 2000, the two nations fought a brutal border war that claimed tens of thousands of lives and left the border heavily fortified. Although they signed a peace agreement in 2000, unresolved issues left the region in a “no war, no peace” state for nearly twenty years.
In 2018, Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a historic peace deal. This agreement reopened embassies, restored diplomatic ties, resumed flights, and facilitated trade. However, relations began to deteriorate again in recent years. Ethiopia’s internal conflicts, regional security concerns, and shifting alliances have strained the fragile peace. Analysts note that the legacy of mistrust between the two nations continues to influence political decisions and military strategies on both sides.
The Accusation
Minister Timothewos alleges that Eritrea is collaborating with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a banned opposition group from Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region. The TPLF had dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before losing power in 2018. While the group remains illegal, it continues to operate in various forms, including armed resistance.
The Ethiopian government claims Eritrea and the TPLF formed a new alliance called “Tsimdo.” According to Ethiopia, members of this alliance carried out a recent attack on Woldiya city in the Amhara region. The government warns that this collaboration could lead to a broader conflict involving multiple actors. Ethiopian officials stress that they are monitoring Eritrean troop movements and TPLF activities closely, as any aggressive action could destabilize the entire region.
Regional Implications
Ethiopia’s accusations come amid already high tensions in the Horn of Africa. Recently, Ethiopia signed a maritime agreement with the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, allowing it to construct a port in exchange for recognition. Somalia opposes this deal, claiming Somaliland as part of its territory. Analysts warn that this development has attracted interest from external powers, including Egypt and Turkey, complicating regional dynamics and raising the risk of escalation.
The situation worsens due to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Reports of human rights violations, forced displacement, and insecurity continue to emerge. Despite a ceasefire agreement, Eritrean troops remain in Tigray, and international observers report incidents of abductions and looting. These issues have strained Ethiopia’s relations with Eritrea and drawn criticism from the international community, which demands accountability and resolution.
International Response
International organizations and diplomatic bodies have expressed growing concern about the rising tensions. The United Nations has urged both countries to engage in dialogue and avoid military escalation. However, mediation efforts face challenges due to the complex web of political alliances, regional disputes, and competing interests in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has reiterated his commitment to resolving disputes through peaceful means. Yet, the recent allegations suggest that diplomacy alone may not prevent renewed conflict. Experts warn that without concrete steps toward de-escalation, the risk of clashes or a broader war remains high.
Potential Consequences
If Eritrea and the TPLF escalate hostilities, the Horn of Africa could face severe consequences. A renewed conflict could disrupt trade routes, displace hundreds of thousands of people, and exacerbate existing humanitarian crises. Neighboring countries may be drawn in, increasing the likelihood of a regional war. Economists and political analysts warn that instability in Ethiopia and Eritrea could also affect the broader African continent, with economic and security repercussions extending beyond the region.
Conclusion
Ethiopia’s accusation against Eritrea marks a pivotal moment in the Horn of Africa’s geopolitical landscape. The situation underscores the urgent need for diplomacy, regional cooperation, and international engagement to prevent the outbreak of war. Countries in the region and global organizations must work together to promote dialogue, monitor developments, and address the underlying causes of conflict.
As Ethiopia and Eritrea navigate this tense period, the international community must maintain close attention and proactive measures. Supporting peace initiatives, facilitating negotiations, and encouraging transparency in military and political activities will be essential to stabilizing the Horn of Africa and safeguarding millions of lives.
